Textbook Reading: Chapter 1 (Intro and Section 1.1; pp. 5-16)
An introduction to the economic way of thinking, which pushes the boundaries of the power of incentives.
Incentives are what economists define as the relationship between the benefits (the value we expect to gain) and the costs (the value we expect to give up) of a decision.
In this lecture we saw how conventional wisdom believes that seatbelts make you safer. But economic wisdom asks how they affect the benefits and costs of being in an accident. The lecture content on seatbelts comes from a great book called “Risk“, by UCL’s John Adams. Risk compensation is a well known concept in international relations – in September 2023 Jake Sullivan, national security advisor to Joe Biden, proposed adding all 5 members of the UN Security Council to the existing nuclear hotline system. As The Economist reported, however, the response was discouraging:
“If you wear a seatbelt in a car, you’re going to be incentivised to driver faster and more crazy, and then you’ll have a crash. So, in a way, better not to have the seat belt.”
This point was well understood by Gregory House:
An interesting argument against mandatory car seats for children is that by making it harder to fit three or more children into a car, it reduces fertility rates and this outweighs the safety benefits (i.e. we lose more children through a lower birth rate than are saved through better protection in an accident). According to this study, seat belts saved the lives of 57 children in 2017, but reduced the birth rate by 8,000! For more, see “On Car Seats as Contraception” (and if you do want 3 young children you can do what my sister did and buy a wide bodied Ford S Max. In europe, minivans never caught on, and in America, they’re dying out).
In 2013 Ian Walker wrote a response to criticisms of his study. Read it here. I originally reported that the 2007 studies main finding was that “Wearing a helmet meant that 23% more cars came within three feet!!” but even the critics accept the evidence that “drivers passed around 8.5cm closer on average when a helmet was worn”. In terms of academic studies, there is some interesting evidence. Schmidt et al (2019) find that wearing helmets reduces the cognitive control of riders, and reduces risk sensitivity. Hoye et al (2020) found that the cyclists under their observation in Denmark who wore helmets did not demonstrate signs of riskier behaviour than those who didn’t, but acknowledged that this may be because their risk compensation is inhibited by the fact that people who wear helmets are more likely to be safety conscious than those who don’t. Indeed given that helmet wearers are systematically more likely to be risk averse, evidence of no difference in actual risk taking may be considered evidence for risk compensation! A 2013 paper by Ben Goldacre and David Spiegelhalter argue that the arguments in favour of mandatory helmet laws are weak. Indeed the BMJ report that when Australia mandated cycle helmets head injuries fell (albeit in line with existing trends and this was true for all injuries, not just head), but there was a 20-30% fall in cycling. Particularly amongst teens 🙁
The lecture also looked at how coordination might take place without centralised control. This clip of San Francisco in 1906 demonstrates a spontaneous order:
And here’s a video on the concept of “shared space”, and what happens when traffic lights are removed:
This is a great photo essay about “continuous sidewalks” and here’s a video about their usage in the Netherlands:
Recommended reading:
Runciman, David, 2012, “Everybody gets popped” London Review of Books 34(22) – A fascinating look into incentive alignment in elite sport doping.
“Are diet pills immoral?” by Tom Chivers, Unherd, September 21st 2021 – A really good overview of how changing incentives can be more effective than trying to change people’s desires, and therefore technological fixes can be just as important social policy tools as attempting to fix the “root causes”.
Learning Objectives: Understand and apply the “Economic Way of Thinking”.
Spotlight on sustainability: A discussion of cycling safety
This website started as “The Gold Hat” in around 1999, using Geocities, but I changed the name to “The Krupnik Parlour” soon after (here’s a screenshot).
When this was transferred to google sites, in July 2009, I set up a free account with Weebly and registered the domain “anthonyjevans.com”.
In May 2010 I opened a WordPress.org account and transferred my server to (mt) media temple. In May 2014 I switched themes from Carrington to Twenty Twelve.
In January 2020 I switched themes to Atomic Blocks. My wife has her own web design consultancy, and she did a great job helping me update the site.
“Strategies emerge for coping. There are many, but in essence they all boil down to two: filter and search” Gleick, 2011, p.409
The Filter^ was created in a Birkenhead chippy, in January 2004. Stephen Lai and Anthony Evans were both recent graduates from the University of Liverpool, and wanted to present interesting and accessible academic ideas to a wider audience.
Created in July 2004, The Filter^ REVIEW is an online assembly of cultural essays. Encompassing opera, music, theatre, and architecture our range of reviewers provide honest and independent assessments of live events. Our motivation is enthusiasm, and providing our part of the social contract between audience and stage. My theatre reviews are available here.
Back in 2005 I wrote a working paper called “Common Moments in c20th Art & Economics“. In 2025 I commissioned Boxmoor Creative to build a visually engaging online exhibition with the help of AI. I am delighted to launch:
In December 2020 one of my favourite teachers, Walter E. Williams, passed away. Although my research in pedagogy is focused on innovative methods I always try to remember the key lessons of (i) knowing your content; (ii) delivering it well; (iii) conveying empathy and passion. Walter excelled at all three.
I also believe that Cultural Theory can help to explain the fascinating social dynamics that occur in Office Christmas Parties. Just after the launch of ‘The Office‘ there was a fly on the wall documentary called ‘The Armstrongs‘. You can find some episodes on YouTube, but the pilot episode (filmed in 2003) isn’t available. After I blogged about the series I received a DVD through the post from one of the production team. This is important because it focused on the Christmas Party. It’s no coincidence that the high point of the UK series of ‘The Office’ was Tim and Dawn’s kiss, which occurred at the Christmas Party. And one of the best ever cinematic moments occurred during the Christmas Party scene in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. My ambition was to conduct an anthropological study of the Christmas Party. One day
Matthew Taylor, former head of the RSA, likes cultural theory. Notice the influence here:
Companies can and do build unique constitutional orders, and there’s lots of potential to apply the field of Constitutional Political Economy to the study of organisations. One example of constitutional management that I am especially interested in is Market-Based Management (R), which treats the institutions that generate economic prosperity as being analogous to the institutions that improve corporate performance.
I have also documented the spread of the Austrian school in Central and Eastern Europe following the fall of the Berlin Wall, providing a rare history of “centre-right” political ideas in Eastern Europe; a chronology of the development and influence of libertarianism; cursory intellectual biographies of neglected Austrian economists; and empirical evidence that contributes to the epistemic communities approach to the study of idea diffusion.
My 2009 book, The Neoliberal Revolution in Eastern Europe, (co-authored with Paul Dragos Aligica) developed two research agendas: the study of the spread of ‘neoliberalism’ – as seen from the perspective of Eastern European post-communist evolutions; and the study of Eastern European transition – as seen from an ideas-centred perspective.
This is a list of ~80 minute sessions that I regularly teach across various general management programmes. The links provide access to lecture slides, cases, classroom activities, and additional resources that I make available to students once they’ve taken the class. If you are an instructor you can contact me directly for board plans and further advice.