|Case: “The Euro in Crisis: Decision Time at the European Central Bank” Harvard Business School case no. 9-711-049
Case preparation: The ECB During the Crisis, July 2021
|Lecture handout: Monetary policy*
Textbook Reading: Chapter 7 (Section 7.1 and 7.5; pp. 200-211 and pp. 227-236) and Chapter 8 (Intro, Section 8.1 and 8.2; pp. 237-278)
This lecture covers a lot of ground but tries to give you a relatively simple, usable framework to relate monetary economics to monetary policy decisions. One problem when studying macroeconomics is the belief that it equips us with an ability to forecast. See my video on Economic Prediction for why I think we need to be careful (and here is a short follow up quiz). Ultimately, we shouldn’t expect central banks to be able to forecast a recession because if they could predict them they can prevent them. To predict a (demand side) recession, therefore, we are really trying to predict central bank incompetence.
You may think that I am being harsh on economic forecasters. But I agree with Andy Haldane when he said, “It has been argued that these models were not designed to explain such extreme events. For me, this is not really a defence. Economics is important because of the social costs of extreme events. Economic policy matters precisely because of these events. If our models are silent about these events, this jeopardises the very thing that makes economics interesting and economic policy important.”
The key finding of monetary economics is that the root cause of inflation is excessive money creation. We looked at some specific examples of hyperinflation, and to learn more you can watch “Zimbabwe and Hyperinflation: Who Wants to Be a Trillionaire?” (Marginal Revolution University). The ONS let you calculate your own personal inflation rate here.
Conventional monetary policy is a simple link between a target (usually inflation) and a tool (interest rates). During the lecture I implied that central bankers change interest rates relative to the current rate. In some cases, however, they may be trying to move the policy rate closer to some sort of benchmark. A common benchmark can be calculate using a Taylor Rule. For examples, see Kaleidic Economics.
To get a feel for how central bankers should respond to changing conditions, try these simulators:
A corridor system is when the central bank targets three policy rates. We looked at how those rates changed from 2003-2015 in the Eurozone. The ECB website has more recent data.
Recent changes to central bank targets include:
- In August 2020 the Fed announced that it would replace a flexible 2% inflation target with a flexible average 2% inflation target (see here).
- In July 2021 the ECB announced that it would replace a target of “below but close to 2%” with a symmetric 2% target over the medium term (see here).
This is a good explanation of current Fed policy:
@kylascan Reply to @joelsephs what does the federal reserve do? #federalreserve #monetarypolicy #inflation #economics #fyp #foryou #LIKEABOMBSHELL ♬ Spooky, quiet, scary atmosphere piano songs – Skittlegirl Sound
For a good primer on inflation see:
- Horan, P.,., “An Inflation Primer” Mercatus Center Policy Brief, July 2022
Here is an article I wrote on the implications of higher inflation for managers.
I’ve advocated replacing the inflation target with an NGDP target for some time.
- Here’s my 2016 policy proposal for the UK
- Here’s a webinar in which I explain the concept
- Here are my thoughts on whether the NGDP crowd “won” the debate
- Here’s a recent Bloomberg article talking about NGDP targets
|Group activity: Thermostat Worksheet, February 2020|
|Group activity: Monetary Implications Worksheet, June 2020|
The key goal for monetary authorities is credibility: [Credibility flashcard]
|Group activity: MPC Simulation, December 2012|
|Group activity: ECB Simulation, March 2011|
The lecture also introduces the concept of the signal extraction problem. This isn’t the most intuitive concept to grasp, but it explains how nominal shocks can have real effects. In other words how changes in the money supply can affect inflation and real growth. A good article on this is Steve Horwitz’s ‘The Parable of the Broken Traffic Lights“.
- The EconTalk podcast, and the episodes with Milton Friedman on Money (August 28th 2006), Allan Meltzer on Inflation (Feb 23rd 2009), and Charles Calomiris on the Financial Crisis (Oct 26, 2009), are particularly relevant for this session.
- I also recommend the episode of Maco Musings called Scott Sumner on The Money Illusion (October 2021)
- This episode from Conversations with Tyler, Mark Carney on Central Banking (May 2021) does a nice job of setting the objectives of a central banker, in a modern economy, related to issues such as climate change and digital currencies. It provides an engaging awareness of some of the differences between major central banks.
Scott Sumner has been described as “the blogger who saved the economy” due to the influence he had over the Fed’s late 2012 QE3 program. He also contributed to the “market monetarist” movement which potentially influenced the Fed’s decision to adopt average inflation targeting and use market forecasts when cutting interest rates in 2019.
For my account of the 2007-2008 financial crisis:
What is a yield curve:
|Learning Objectives: Understand the root causes of inflation, and contribute to policy discussions. Understand how monetary policy affects business decision-making and thus generates macroeconomic fluctuations. See the operation of a conventional monetary policy regime in practice. Contrast the ways in which the Fed and the ECB acted during the global financial crisis.
Cutting edge theory: Nominal income targeting and surveying current monetary indicators.
Focus on diversity: One of the most influential books on monetary economics was co-authored by Anna Schwartz. You can learn more about her here. In 2019 Christine Lagarde became the first female president of the ECB. Prior to that she was the managing director of the IMF. You can read her article on how women can grow the global economy here.
Spotlight on sustainability: We look at how interest rates enable intertemporal coordination