Progress

Lecture handout: Progress*

Activity: Transformative Breakthrough Worksheet

Key readings:

• “We Need a New Science of Progress” by Patrick Collison and Tyler Cowen, The Atlantic, July 30th 2019
• “Do we need a better understanding of ‘progress’?” by Garrison Lovely, BBC, June 16th 2022

Other readings:

• Dourado, Eli, “Notes on technology in the 2020s“, December 31st 2020
• Southwood, Ben, “Scientific slowdown is not inevitable“, Works in Progress, April 21st 2022
• Shariatmadari, David, “An optimist’s guide to the future: the economist who believes that human ingenuity will save the world” The Guardian, April 30th 2022

Key podcast:

• “Jason Crawford: What is progress and how to we get more of it?“, Matt Clifford’s Thoughts in Between, October 11th 2021
• “Are you a Booster or a Doomster?” CapX Podcast, August 12th 2022

Here’s a concerning thought: “Half of all scientific papers were published in the last 12 years, but much less than half of all scientific progress has happened in that time” (link).

For a survey of potential breakthrough technologies see:

• Weinersmith, K., and Weiner, Z., 2017, Soonish, Penguin

In December 2020 Tyler Cowen provided a list of new technologies that may mark the end of the great stagnation. He included:

• Apple’s M1, GPT-3
• DeepMind’s application of AI to protein folding
• phase III for a credible malaria vaccine
• a CRISPR/sickle cell cure
• the possibility of a universal flu vaccine
• mRNA vaccines
• ongoing solar power progress
• new batteries for electric vehicles
• a possibly new method for Chinese fusion

In February 2022 MIT Technology Review listed their 10 biggest technology breakthroughs in 2022. They are:

1. Moving away from passwords
2. Coronavirus variant tracking
3. A long-lasting grid battery
4. Artificial intelligence for protein folding
5. GlaxoSmithKline’s malaria vaccine
6. Proof of stake
7. COVID-19 antiviral pills
8. Practical fusion reactors
9. Synthetic data for training AI
10. The world’s largest carbon removal factory in Iceland

Here is an explanation of nuclear fusion:

Here is a podcast with Eli Dourado:

My conversation with @elidourado on what may drive an increase in economic productivity in the 2020s:

– biotech
– energy (geothermal)
– transportation
– space
– information technology

This made me damn excitedhttps://t.co/djiHPcHP4w pic.twitter.com/NufFqfoYOW

— Patrick OShaughnessy (@patrick_oshag) May 11, 2021

Some of my favourite “no brainer” growth drivers include:

• Allow bigger skyscrapers

I suspect that future growth requires a cultural shift toward the principle of progress, and this involves a shift to longer term thinking. This post by Max Roser nicely presents the importance of “Longtermism”.

Here is a powerful and fascinating account of why advances in artificial wombs are so important, and I encourage all students to read it and reflect carefully on whether we should:

• Alter the 14 day rule on keeping embryos in labs.
• Invest more in Femtech.

For more on Permissionless Innovation:

A good, uplifting account of how creativity can result from not asking permission:

Here is a short quiz activity on the difference between the Precautionary principles and Permissionless innovation.

The importance of ideas:

“Comfort is the enemy of progress” P.T. Barnum:

Key think tanks:

• Institute for Progress
• The Roots of Progress

Key movements:

• Progress Studies
• Effective Altruism

Learning Objectives: Link technological innovation to growth theory and a broader reflection on the importance of the humanities Cutting edge theory: A survey of potentially transformative breakthrough technologies. Focus on diversity: Virginia Postrel’s book, The Future and it’s Enemies, encapsulates the distinctions made at the end of the lecture.

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