Stagnation

Lecture handout: Stagnation*

I provided some pessimistic views on transformative breakthroughs. But every now and then I notice the power of steady, incremental progress. For example:

Noah Smith has a nice Twitter thread on progress since 1970.

40 years of improved precision engineering and execution speed pic.twitter.com/pDLGbeeqAN

— Roberto Alonso González Lezcano (@robertoglezcano) February 2, 2020

In December 2020 Tyler Cowen provided a list of new technologies that may mark the end of the great stagnation. He included:

• Apple’s M1, GPT-3
• DeepMind’s application of AI to protein folding
• phase III for a credible malaria vaccine
• a CRISPR/sickle cell cure
• the possibility of a universal flu vaccine
• mRNA vaccines
• ongoing solar power progress
• new batteries for electric vehicles
• a possibly new method for Chinese fusion

Here is a podcast with Eli Dourado:

My conversation with @elidourado on what may drive an increase in economic productivity in the 2020s:

– biotech
– energy (geothermal)
– transportation
– space
– information technology

This made me damn excitedhttps://t.co/djiHPcHP4w pic.twitter.com/NufFqfoYOW

— Patrick OShaughnessy (@patrick_oshag) May 11, 2021

Extra reading: Dourado, Eli, “Notes on technology in the 2020s“, December 31st 2020

For more on Permissionless Innovation

A good, uplifting account of how creativity can result from not asking permission:

The importance of ideas:

• Additional reading: Cowen, Tyler “Ten Ways to Live a Less Complacent Life”, LinkedIn, May 2017

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This page ties into Chapter 12 of Economics: A Complete Guide for Business

Learning Objectives: Understand the debate around secular stagnation. Cutting edge theory: A survey of potentially transformative breakthrough technologies. Focus on diversity: Virginia Postrel’s book, The Future and it’s Enemies, encapsulates the distinctions made at the end of the lecture.

• Category: course map