Category: courses

The course introduces students to several important and contemporary issues that relate to economics. Having already covered the key insights from Micro and Macroeconomics, we will go deeper into the frontiers of the discipline. Students will challenge their understanding of complex and controversial issues and develop their perspective on how to become managers of the future.

 Assessment

• 40% Group report (instructions here)
• 60% Final exam (MCQ) (a practice exam will be made available)

️ Content

I thought it went without saying that economic growth is good, that America is a phenomenally rich country, and that capitalism is the reason why. But now I’m not so sure. So in this course, I say it. 

Other lectures that could be added:

• Macro Trends – an overview of global growth prospects and a survey of the key challenges facing policymakers
• Macro Risk – a look at the key risk factors affecting the global economy, and a survey of which countries are best positioned to deal with macro shocks
• Macro Models – how macroeconomic models should integrate climate concerns
• The evolution of money: gold, fiat and crypto
• Central banks and digital transformation
• The Solow model, and how it relates to growth theory
• Sustainability Playbook – how we are solving our environmental problems
• Nuclear power – we could have had it all
• Are humans special?

How can I improve my team effectiveness when facing complex business problems?

Problem Solving and Decision Making is an intensive managerial programme that has been shown to be an enjoyable and successful way to improve team performance and productivity. The course provides practical skills and a management mindset rather than simply transfer knowledge. Participants are taken through the full problem-solving and decision-making cycle: from breaking down the issue, to prioritising and writing the action plan. They also practice communicating their proposal, an important and often overlooked aspect of the decision-making process. The course focuses mostly on experiential, proactive and practical learning: participants engage in individual and team problem-solving and decision-making, and receive constructive feedback to build on personal strengths and address limitations.

Resources:

• Fanelli’s Pizza, July 2021
  • An instructor pack is available on request. Download the Menu here. 
• Shipwreck
• The Individual Notes
• The Group Worksheets // .pptx version // Google slides (view only)
• Presentation Skills
• Individual assignment

For more on the Pyramid Principle:

• “The Pyramid Principle” by Ameet Ranadive, June 2013
• Minto, Barbara, 2008, The Pyramid Principle: Logic in Writing and Thinking, FT Prentice Hall

For more on the 7-38-55 rule see:

• #364 – Chris Voss: FBI Hostage Negotiator, Lex Fridman (at 1:54:17)

For more on problem solving, see:

• Are You Trying to Solve the Wrong Problem? by Peter Bregman, Harvard Business Review, December 2015

Background materials

For more about Toyota listen to:

• The Blame Game, Malcolm Gladwell, August 4th 2016

For an introduction to the Tylenol murders listen to:

• The Tylenol Murders, Criminal, Episode 201, November 18th 2022

How can I become more confident when faced with conditions of uncertainty?  How can I contribute to an organisation that utilises effective heuristics?

This 1-2 day course provides a simple framework for how people make decisions. It shows how heuristics have the potential to enable effective judgments, but that they can also lead us to mistakes. It also provides a tool kit – the scenario method – to confront complex and uncertain situations. We will also understand what makes us us, and how this relates to personal and professional activities.

Case (must be read in advance)

• “Sun: A CEO’s Last Stand”, Business Week, July 26th 2004

Pre-class reading:

• “Explained: Knightian uncertainty” by Peter Dizikes, MIT news office, June 2010
• Quassim Cassam’s review of Kay, J., & King, M., 2020 ‘Radical Uncertainty’
• “Can we measure uncertainty?” Kaleidic Economics, March 2013
• Evans, Anthony J.. “Projections Past and Future: Economic Imagination and the Financial Crisis 2007 – 2012.” Working Paper, Mercatus Center at George Mason University, August 2009.

And any 1 of the following articles:

• Wack, Pierre, 1985, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.” Harvard Business Review 63, 5: 73-89.
• Wilkinson, Laurence, 1995, “How to Build Scenarios” Wired Magazine
• Roxburgh, C., 2009, “The use and abuse of scenarios” McKinsey Quarterly

Course overview:

Part 1: Introduction

Part 2: Behavioural economics + [worksheet]

Part 3: Scenario Workshop + + [worksheet]

Lecture notes

Additional readings:

The course incorporates content from the following important books. Prior knowledge of these insights are valuable but not mandatory:

• Kay, J., & King, M., 2020, Radical Uncertainty, The Bridge Street Press (Chapter 1 serves as a useful reading on its own)
• Hanson, R., and Simler, K., 2018, The Elephant in the Brain, Oxford University Press
• Peters, S., 2012, The Chimp Paradox, Vermilion
• Kahneman, D., 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Penguin

Recommended audio:

• ‘The Road to the Iraq War‘, Slowburn Season 5

Recommended movies:

Course outline: Economics for Managers (MIM) 2019/20

Course textbook:

• Evans, Anthony J., 2014, “Markets for Managers: A Managerial Economics Primer“, (Wiley Finance)
• I also recommend the following :
  • Schotter, A., 2008, “Microeconomics: A Modern Approach” (South Western, International edition)
  • Cowen, T., and Tabarrok, A., 2014, “Modern Principles: Macroeconomics” Worth (,3^rd Edition, approx. £50)

Problem set: download here.

1. Consumer behaviour and basic review

1a. Max U +
Evans, A.J., Maximilian Untergrundbahn, January 2018
Instructions: Complete the assignment questions

1b. Course Introduction & Administration

2. Cost functions and price discovery

2a. Cost curves* +
Evans, A.J., La Marmotte, January 2012
Instructions: Complete Exhibit 1 and provide suggestions for the two key decisions

2b. Comparative Statics +

3. Asymmetric information

3a. Adverse selection +
Akerlof, G.A., (1970) “The Market for ‘Lemons’: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism”. Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3):488–500 (£)

3b. Signalling* +
Spence, M., (1973) “Job Market Signaling“. Quarterly Journal of Economics 87(3):355–374 (£)

4. Strategic behaviour

4a. Introduction to Game Theory* +

4b. Oligopolistic competition +

5. REVIEW SESSION ON MICRO PROBLEM SET 

6. National income accounting

6a. Economic growth* +
Solow, R., (1956) “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1):65-94 (£)

6b. Capital Theory* +

7. Monetary policy

7. Monetary policy* +

8. Fiscal policy

8. Fiscal policy* +

This course provides an overview of basic microeconomic theory and applies it to business decision-making. In particular, it will present the main principles of microeconomics from the perspective of strategic behaviour. The course draws on examples from the business world to illustrate the practical relevance of the models used.

Course textbook:

• Evans, Anthony J., 2020 “Economics: A complete guide for business“, London Publishing Partnership

1. Consumer behaviour and negotiation

1a. Value creation* (+)

1b. Understanding cost* (+)

Textbook: Chapter 1.2 and Chapter 2.1

2. Supply decisions

2a. Cost curves* (+)

Evans, A.J., “La Marmotte”, January 2012

Instructions: Complete Exhibit 1 and provide suggestions for the two key decisions

2b. Economies of scale (+)

Rivkin, J.W., “Dogfight over Europe: Ryanair (A)” Harvard Business School case no. 9-700-115, November 21st 2007 (£)

Discussion question: What are some sources of economies of scale? How do they apply to British Airways in 1986?

Textbook: Chapter 2.2, 2.3 and 2.4

3. Markets and prices

3a. Auctions (+)

Hild, M., Dwidevy, A., and Raj, A., 2004, “The Biggest Auction Ever: 3G Licensing in Western Europe”, Darden Business Publishing (£)

Discussion question: What are the alternatives to auctions?

3b. Equilibrium assignment (+)

Textbook: Chapter 3.1, 3.2, and 3.3

4. Asymmetric information and market design

4a. Adverse selection (+)

4b. Prediction markets (+)

Coles, Peter, Lakhani, Karim and McAfee, Andrew, “Prediction Markets at Google” Harvard Business School Case No. 9-607-088, August 20, 2007

Textbook: Chapter 3.4 and Chapter 4.4 and 4.5

5. Strategic microeconomics

5a. Game Theory (+)

5b. Oligopoly (+)

Textbook: Chapter 5.2

Note:

Sessions marked with an asterix (*) have a lecture handout available in advance, which can be downloaded.

Cases marked with a pound sign (£) are either available via Blackboard or through the library.

This course provides a thorough and contextual perspective on various forms of macroeconomic policymaking. In addition to looking at how monetary and fiscal policy can be used to manage the domestic economy, we will take an international approach to various forms of economic crisis. By the end of this course students will be able to critically engage with some of the key indicators that may help to predict a currency crisis, and relate this to famous historic cases. We will look at the role played by international institutions during sovereign debt crises, and gain experience at identifying, summarising, and communicating relevant data.

Course textbook:

• Evans, Anthony J., 2020 “Economics: A complete guide for business“, London Publishing Partnership

Assessment:

• 40% group report (see here)
• 60% individual MCQ (practice exam here)

Note:

Cases marked with a pound sign (£) are either available via Blackboard or through the library.

How can I use data to understand my organisations situation and performance?

From 2006 – 2010 I taught a Quantitative Methods course at ESCP Europe. I enjoyed it immensely and got great feedback from students. Since then I’ve continued to gather material but realise that no-one gets to see it. So I’ve created an online course.

The course should be of use to anyone with an interest in an MBA level education, and I have attempted to supplement my own presentations with links to some exceptional online resources.

The rest of this page contains some further resources and links.

Pre-reading

• Davenport, Thomas H., “Competing on Analytics“, Harvard Business Review, Jan 1st 2006

Prerequisite

• If you want to start at the very beginning then take my Numeracy Skills Bootcamp, which covers Fundamentals of Mathematics, some Practice Tests, and a discussion of Gender Differences & Mathematics. I also suggest my content on Collecting and Presenting Data.

Textbook

I hope you find the online course useful, but I am also a fan of the old fashioned way. The course ties in to the following textbook:

• Curwin, J, and Slater, R., 2013, Quantitative Methods for Business Decisions, Cengage Learning, 7th Edition (££)

It is a very good one: well written, full of examples, and plenty of opportunities to test yourself. You could do a lot worse than simply order it now and then work your way through it.

I’m also intrigued by “Calculus Made Easy“, by Silvanus Thompson. It’s antiquated in format but highly directed toward simplifying concepts and engaging with the reader.

Pop analytics

I believe that a good way to prepare for a subject is to read a book that is captivating. Something that stimulates your interest and encourages you to dig deeper. There are lots of bestsellers that have attempted to communicate mathematical ideas to the educated layperson. My favourite 6 are these:

• Mlodinow, L., 2008, The Drunkard’s Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives, Pantheon (£)
• Taleb, N.N., 2001, Fooled by Randomness, Random House (£)
• Bodanis, D., 2001, E=MC^2, Pan Books (£)
• Sing, S., 1997, Fermat’s Last Theorem, Fourth Estate (£)
• Bernstein, P., 1998, Against the Gods, Wiley (£)
• Wheelan, C., 2013, Naked Statistics, Norton (actually, I’ve not read this one yet, but I’ve heard it’s good) (£)

Other online courses

The University of Bristol Medical school has a lovely Research Methods & Statistics online course. Introductory Statistics, an online course by Andy Field. It is full of some excellent tutorials that are presented with a unique style. The New York Times have made their course on data skills publicly available, there’s a link here. A thorough course designed for incoming PhD students is the Princeton Sociology Summer Methods Camp 2019.

I also love this course: Calling Bullshit in the Age of Big Data.

There are also lots of proper online courses to choose from. The only one I have direct experience of is this:

If you really need to develop your QM skills then I would recommend you follow the HBS one instead of mine. However I found it pretty dull and failed to complete it. I’m hoping that by providing a mixture of content you will find mine more enjoyable.

Other resources

Instrumental variables: this tweet and these lecture notes

False positives and coronavirus.

Examples of bitemporal charts (especially good on economic forecasts)

Video on Bayes’ theorem.

Double y axis.

Software and misc.

Daniel Kunin has a wonderful website called “Seeing Theory“, which allows users to visualise basic concepts in statistics. I’ve integrated links into the course below.

Software: http://datasplash.com/

Handouts

• Formula sheet
• Probability tables

APPENDIX: Contoversies

I believe that the best way to internalise the key concepts in this course is to conduct a replication exercise. These have become increasingly common as ways to apply the concepts covered, and test a students knowledge retention. To be honest though I am yet to find any really good examples of statistical tests that companies have utilised, and for which the underlying data set is available.

In their textbook, “Modern Principles: Macroeconomics”, Tyler Cowen and Alex Tabarrok present a good exercise to replicate a Solow Model. My (flawed) attempt to combine two of their problem sets is here:

• Solow 1502.pdf (email me for discussion)

Whilst I continue to look for potential replications, one option is to focus on some controversial statistical debates. These are also good ways to go deeper into the theory, and fully appreciate the link between theory and practice.

• Crime and abortion
  • “Crossing continents” BBC Radio 4, December 21st 2006
  • Freakonomics video
  • Donohue, J.J., and Levitt, S., (2001) “The Impact of Legalised Abortion on Crime”. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. CXVI, Issue 2., pp.379-420
  • “Oops-onomics” The Economist, December 1st 2005
  • Foote, C.L., and Goetz, C.F., “Testing Economic Hypotheses with State-Level Data: A comment on Donohue and Levitt (2001)”. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston working paper. November 2005
  • Levitt, S., “Abortion and crime: who should you believe?” Freakonomics Blog, 15th May 2005
• Sudden Infant Death syndrome
  • see Mlodinow, 2008, p118-119
  • How Juries are Fooled by Statistics, Peter Donnelly, Ted Global 2005
  • Roy Meadow Wikipedia page
• Breast cancer
  • “Dodgy numbers“, The Remittance Man, April 14th 2014
• Sovereign debt crises
  • “The 90% Question” The Economist, April 20th 2013
• MMR
  • Wikipedia
  • In the Wake of Wakefield, BBC
• Other links
  • https://twitter.com/ryxcommar/status/1080588271376363520?s=11

After party

You should now be a savvy consumer of statistical analysis and passionate about good data management. I recommend that you treat yourself to the following tome:

• Gleick, J., 2012 [2011], The Information, Fourth Estate (£)

Thank you for visiting.

Last updated: June 2019

Background readings:

The textbook is Economics: A Complete Guide for Business by Anthony J. Evans (2020). I wrote it specifically for this course and all students are advised to read it in conjunction with the lectures.

There are plenty of other good textbooks on the market. I also recommend Managerial Economics by Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward and Mikhael Shor (Thomson Southwestern 3rd edition, 2013) and A Concise Guide to Macroeconomics by David Moss (Harvard Business School Press, 2007). Course handouts: download here.

Day 1

1. Incentives matter* +

2. Cost Curves* [Ch.2] +

La Marmotte, January 2012 Instructions: Complete Exhibit A and provide suggestions for the two key decisions

3.  Auctions +

Hild, M., Dwidevy, A., and Raj, A., “The Biggest Auction Ever: 3G Licensing in Western Europe”, Darden Business Publishing, 2004 (£)

Discussion question: What are the alternatives to auctions?

4. Price discrimination [Evans Ch.4.3] +

Read through the following Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/anthonyjevans/status/993918866186297349

Choose one of the tweets and use it as the basis to apply some microeconomic theory. Make assumptions and perform calculations where necessary.

5. Price discrimination – Debrief*

Day 2

6. Monetary policy* +

7. Fiscal policy* +

8. Macro Policy Workshop +

Choose your own financial crisis

9. Behavioural economics +

“Sun: A CEO’s Last Stand”, Business Week, July 26th 2004

Note:

Sessions marked with an asterix (*) have a lecture handout available in advance, which can be downloaded.

Cases marked with a pound sign (£) are available through the Programme Office. Follow the + links for additional resources.

English wine | Harvest or not harvest? | Grgich | May the (5) forces be with you | Meet Žujsko

Background readings:

Course handouts: Managerial Economics and Business Ethics

Day 1

1. Incentives matter* +

Textbook reading: Chapter 1

2. Understanding cost* +

Textbook reading: Chapter 2

3. Auctions +

Hild, M., Dwidevy, A., and Raj, A., “The Biggest Auction Ever: 3G Licensing in Western Europe”, Darden Business Publishing, 2004 (£)

Discussion question: What are the alternatives to auctions?

Extra activity: The Dutch flower auction

Textbook reading: Chapter 3

4. Prediction markets +

Coles, Peter, Lakhani, Karim and McAfee, Andrew, “Prediction Markets at Google” Harvard Business School 9-607-088, August 20th 2007 (£)

Prediction Markets, February 2016

Textbook reading: Chapter 4

Day 2

6 & 7. Monetary policy* +

“The Euro in Crisis: Decision Time at the European Central Bank” Harvard Business School case no. 9-711-049

The ECB During the Crisis, July 2021

Textbook reading: Chapter 7 and Chapter 8

8 & 9. Fiscal policy* +

Textbook reading: Chapter 9

10. Macro Policy Workshop +

Extra activity: NGDP masterclass

Day 3 

1. Managerial Insights*
2. Macro Risk*
3. Markets: The First AI* +
   • For this session there are 4 readings. You may find some of them tough going. But you’ll have some time in class as well. Please try to read them. 
   • “On the Origin of Money” (Carl Menger, 1892, Economic Journal, (2):239-55)
   • “The Use of Knowledge in Society” (Friedrich Hayek, 1945, American Economic Review, 35(4):519- 530)
   • “I, Pencil” (Leonard Read, 1958, Foundation for Economic Education)
   • “What is Seen and What is Not Seen” (Frederic Bastiat, 1850, Paris: Guillaumin. This version taken from The Bastiat Collection, 2nd Ed., Mises Institute, 2007, pp. 1-11 only)

   Here is a PDF copy of the reading pack which should be read:

   Download the reading pack here.

4. Group preparation
5. Group presentations

Day 4 See Business Ethics.

Before the Business Ethics class you should read about these mini cases: and complete this form.

Note: Sessions marked with an asterix (*) have a lecture handout available in advance, which can be downloaded. Cases marked with a pound sign (£) are available through the Programme Office. Follow the + links for additional resources.

Course introduction

The scenario method is a useful, creative, and increasingly popular way for managers to reframe their perspective and improve their organisational resilience. The course shows how to recognise the driving forces that will affect the future business context and consider the present-day implications. By building detailed and imaginative narratives, participants will learn how to confront uncertainty and become more confident in conditions of change. The lecture content contains the cutting-edge practice of the scenario method and the blended approach permits flexibility, agility, and collaborative project work.

Pre-course activities

• Reading pack: (download all here)
  • “3 scenarios for how COVID-19 plays out: Morgan Stanley” by Ethan Wolff-Mann, Yahoo! Finance, 28th February 2020
  • “3 Scenarios for How Putin Could Actually Use Nukes” by Gregg Herken, Avner Cohen and George Moore, Politico, 16th May 2022
  • “Planning for a life without death or smartphones: what it’s like to be a futurologist“, by Amelia Heathman, Evening Standard, 26 July 2018
• Required reading:
  • Wilkinson, Laurence, 1995, “How to Build Scenarios” Wired Magazine
  • Ramirez, R., Churchhouse, S., Palermo, A., and Hoffman, J., “Using scenario planning to reshape strategy“, MIT Sloan Management Review, Summer 2017

Here is a pre course quiz.

You probably don’t want to take movie recommendations from me, but if you wanted to watch something before the course that will help your understanding of key learning outcomes, I recommend: Children of Men (2006)

Course content

• Slide deck: NIS April 2024, MDT April 2024
• Scenarios Worksheets (.pptx)

Public resources

• Shell’s Energy Transformation Scenarios: Summary Report, Full Report
• Shell’s Energy Security Scenarios: Summary Report,
• Deloitte’s Covid-19 Scenarios

• Oxford Scenarios Programme, Webinar, September 2017 – this provides an excellent overview of two fascinating case studies: Rolls Royce and the Royal Society of Chemistry.

For my report on SMRs see here. For my analysis of the situation in Belarus see here.

Before using my flight from Lebanon as an example of the instinctive (but anxiety inducing) desire to assign probabilities to uncertain events, I used the example of Everton’s 2023 relegation battle. To learn about that, see these two articles:

• Planning beats probability – Part 1
• Planning beats probability – Part 2

Here is a recording of my webinar from December 2021 on Scenario Planning for the Energy Industry:

In 1997 Wired published an article called “The Long Boom” in which Peter Schwartz and Peter Leyden provided a “history of the future 1980-2020”. You can read it here.

Recommended further reading:

• Wack, Pierre, 1985, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.” Harvard Business Review 63, 5: 73-89
• Roxburgh, C., 2009, “The use and abuse of scenarios” McKinsey Quarterly
• Lang, T., and Ramirez, R., “Getting the most from publicly available scenarios: 5 ways to avoid costly mistakes” California Management Review, April 29th 2021

Why is the scenario method so important? Because, as Adam Martin mentioned in his interview with Peter Boettke, in economics the emphasis on choice is because we live in a world of scarcity. The conditions of uncertainty, however, also means that we require imagination. Scarcity and uncertainty are the context. Choice and imagination are the consequence.