Confronting uncertainty

How can I become more confident when faced with conditions of uncertainty?  How can I contribute to an organisation that utilises effective heuristics?

This 1-2 day course provides a simple framework for how people make decisions. It shows how heuristics have the potential to enable effective judgments, but that they can also lead us to mistakes. It also provides a tool kit – the scenario method – to confront complex and uncertain situations. We will also understand what makes us us, and how this relates to personal and professional activities.

Case (must be read in advance)

Pre-class reading:

And any 1 of the following articles:

Course overview:

Part 1: Introduction

Part 2: Behavioural economics + [worksheet]

Part 3: Scenario Workshop + + [worksheet]

Lecture notes

Additional readings:

The course incorporates content from the following important books. Prior knowledge of these insights are valuable but not mandatory:

  • Kay, J., & King, M., 2020, Radical Uncertainty, The Bridge Street Press (Chapter 1 serves as a useful reading on its own)
  • Hanson, R., and Simler, K., 2018, The Elephant in the Brain, Oxford University Press
  • Peters, S., 2012, The Chimp Paradox, Vermilion
  • Kahneman, D., 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Penguin

Recommended audio:

Recommended movies: