Scenarios

Course introduction

The scenario method is a useful, creative, and increasingly popular way for managers to reframe their perspective and improve their organisational resilience. The course shows how to recognise the driving forces that will affect the future business context and consider the present-day implications. By building detailed and imaginative narratives, participants will learn how to confront uncertainty and become more confident in conditions of change. The lecture content contains the cutting-edge practice of the scenario method and the blended approach permits flexibility, agility, and collaborative project work.

Pre-course activities

• Reading pack: (download all here)
  • “3 scenarios for how COVID-19 plays out: Morgan Stanley” by Ethan Wolff-Mann, Yahoo! Finance, 28th February 2020
  • “3 Scenarios for How Putin Could Actually Use Nukes” by Gregg Herken, Avner Cohen and George Moore, Politico, 16th May 2022
  • “Planning for a life without death or smartphones: what it’s like to be a futurologist“, by Amelia Heathman, Evening Standard, 26 July 2018
• Required reading:
  • Wilkinson, Laurence, 1995, “How to Build Scenarios” Wired Magazine
  • Ramirez, R., Churchhouse, S., Palermo, A., and Hoffman, J., “Using scenario planning to reshape strategy“, MIT Sloan Management Review, Summer 2017

Here is a pre course quiz.

You probably don’t want to take movie recommendations from me, but if you wanted to watch something before the course that will help your understanding of key learning outcomes, I recommend: Children of Men (2006)

 

Course content

• Slide deck: NIS April 2024, MDT April 2024
• Scenarios Worksheets (.pptx)

Public resources

• Shell’s Energy Transformation Scenarios: Summary Report, Full Report
• Shell’s Energy Security Scenarios: Summary Report,
• Deloitte’s Covid-19 Scenarios

• Oxford Scenarios Programme, Webinar, September 2017 – this provides an excellent overview of two fascinating case studies: Rolls Royce and the Royal Society of Chemistry.

For my report on SMRs see here. For my analysis of the situation in Belarus see here.

Before using my flight from Lebanon as an example of the instinctive (but anxiety inducing) desire to assign probabilities to uncertain events, I used the example of Everton’s 2023 relegation battle. To learn about that, see these two articles:

• Planning beats probability – Part 1
• Planning beats probability – Part 2

Here is a recording of my webinar from December 2021 on Scenario Planning for the Energy Industry:

In 1997 Wired published an article called “The Long Boom” in which Peter Schwartz and Peter Leyden provided a “history of the future 1980-2020”. You can read it here.

Recommended further reading:

• Wack, Pierre, 1985, “Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead.” Harvard Business Review 63, 5: 73-89
• Roxburgh, C., 2009, “The use and abuse of scenarios” McKinsey Quarterly
• Lang, T., and Ramirez, R., “Getting the most from publicly available scenarios: 5 ways to avoid costly mistakes” California Management Review, April 29th 2021

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Learning Objectives: Build and use scenarios. Think creatively about alternate futures. Link scenario planning to strategic issues.

Why is the scenario method so important? Because, as Adam Martin mentioned in his interview with Peter Boettke, in economics the emphasis on choice is because we live in a world of scarcity. The conditions of uncertainty, however, also means that we require imagination. Scarcity and uncertainty are the context. Choice and imagination are the consequence.

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