Course introduction

The scenario method is a useful, creative, and increasingly popular way for managers to reframe their perspective and improve their organisational resilience. The course shows how to recognise the driving forces that will affect the future business context and consider the present-day implications. By building detailed and imaginative narratives, participants will learn how to confront uncertainty and become more confident in conditions of change. The lecture content contains the cutting-edge practice of the scenario method and the blended approach permits flexibility, agility, and collaborative project work.

Pre-course activities
Course content
Public resources

  • Oxford Scenarios Programme, Webinar, September 2017 – this provides an excellent overview of two fascinating case studies: Rolls Royce and the Royal Society of Chemistry.

For my report on SMRs see here. For my analysis of the situation in Belarus see here.

Here is a recording of my webinar from December 2021 on Scenario Planning for the Energy Industry:

In 1997 Wired published an article called “The Long Boom” in which Peter Schwartz and Peter Leyden outlines provided a “history of the future 1980-2020”. You can read it here.

Recommended further reading:

Learning Objectives: Build and use scenarios. Think creatively about alternate futures. Link scenario planning to strategic issues.