Macro Risk

Lecture handout: Macro Risk. Here is the quiz.

To keep up to date with my thoughts on economic issues either follow me on X/Twitter or see Kaleidic Economics.

Recommended reading

  • Carlsson-Szlezak, P., and Swartz, P., “How to assess true macroeconomic risk” Harvard Business Review, July-August 2024
  • You can read the 2025 AXA Future Risks Report here.
  • IMF Annual Report 2025 here.

Recommended audio

  • The Economy in 2026: What Risks Lies Ahead? with Gita Gopinath, The Economics Show, Financial Times, January 23rd 2026 – Martin Wolf interviews the IMF economist. The discuss post-Brexit impact, elevated debt levels and rising fiscal dominance.
  • The limits of monetary policy, with Agustin Carstens, The Economics Show, Financial Times, November 14th 2025 – Carstens talks about the critical importance of macro stability for emerging markets and expresses concern that a system of national central banks may no longer be fit for purpose in a world of more complex global financial instability.

Don’t forget that macro risk is only one component of global risk!

Here is the 2025 AXA Future risks report: